27/11/2018 Position Update - USD/EUR/GOLD Position increased

Markets in Turkey are recovering the storm in August/September.

TL appreciated against foreign currencies significantly.
USD/TL is around 200 day Moving average support.

Monthly Interest Account is reduced by 14.000 TL and allocated as below:

* 6.000 TL to GOLD/TL
* 5.000 TL to USD/TL
* 3.000 TL to EUR/TL.

Below are the weekly charts:

   First target for the USD/ TL is around 5.8-5,85.

First target for the EUR/ TL is around 6,7-6,75.

Position will be opened around 105.000-110.000 in BIST 30.

 First target for theGAU/TRY is around 240-245.




























To summarize; Fund return is better than Interest Return and BIST30 return, close to USD/TRY, EUR/TRY  and lower than GOLD/TRY return since inception.
Below is the summary:

* The comments mentioned here are solely for personal market tracking. Burada paylaşılmış yorumlar ve öneriler sadece kişisel performans ve piyasa takibi için yayınlanmaktadır. Başka bir amacı yoktur.

17 10 2018 Update / USD- GOLD Position Increased - BIST30 Position Closed

TL has recovered significantly since last update and trading close to trend support on the weekly chart.

BIST 30 position closed because of an expected difficult year in 2019 for both domestic and global financial markets. Re entry will be considered around 110.000. (18.059,87 TL from BIST 30 position is allocated to USD position)

Monthly Interest Account #2 is closed and 11.000 TL is allocated to GOLD and 10.998,5 TL is allocated to EUR.

Below are the weekly charts:



                                          First target for the USD/ TL is around 6,4.

Position will be opened around 110.000 in BIST 30.

First target for the EUR TL is around 7,8

.

                                       First target for theGAU/TRY is around 280.

To summarize; Fund return is better than Interest Return and BIST30 return however lower than USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and GOLD/TRY return since inception due to recent depreciation of Turkish Lira.  

17 9 2018 BIST 30 Position reduced

With the recent increase in interest rates, it makes more sense to shift capital (30.000 TL) from BIST30 to interest account #1.

The weekly graphs are below. The current strategy would be to keep the position till things calm down. BIST 30 position will be increased around 10%lower from current levels.

To summarize; Fund return has been beaten by USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and GOLD/TRY return since inception due to recent depreciation of Turkish Lira.  

16 8 2018 Position Adjustment

The recent moves in Turkish market was definitely "Not Normal". The market calmed down significantly. Thus the theoretical fund position is adjusted to changing conditions.

BIST 30 is at the critical support. BIST100 tested critical major low of 1200 level in USD terms.

To summarize; Fund return has been beaten by USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and GOLD/TRY return since inception due to recent depreciation of Turkish Lira.  Below is the readjusted portfolio.
Monthly interest accounts 1 and 3 are closed and allocated to USD (12.556,79 TL fromMIA#3 , EUR (7.855,18 TL from MIA#1)  and GOLD (5.000 TL from MIA#1) .

* The comments mentioned here are solely for personal market tracking. Burada paylaşılmış yorumlar ve öneriler sadece kişisel performans ve piaasa takibi için yayınlanmaktadır. Başka bir amacı yoktur.

7 8 2018 USD Position Reduced

Mostly due to politicial tensions with USA, Turkish Lira lost significant value against other currencies.

Target for USD/TL is reached overnight, thus reducing the USD position by 12.855,18 TL and adding it to fictitious Monthly Interest account #1.

USD position will be kept at these levels for the mid term due to uncertainty. 

EUR/TRY  will be kept at these levels for the mid term due to uncertainty. 

BIST 30 first target is around 123.000-125.000. 

 Initial Target :LONG TERM hold 

To summarize: Fund return in TL is now over Interest return and BIST 30 since inception (15.09.2015). With the recent spike up, USD/TRY-EUR/TRY, GOLD/TRY return is better than the fund  return at the moment.

12 7 2018 BIST 30 Position Increased

Turkish Stock Market has been heavily sold due to political situation in Turkey.

Monthly interest account #1 is closed and bought 5.312,51 TL worth of BIST30.  Market is at a major support level. First target is 123.000-125.000.

USD/TL will be kept at these levels for the mid term due to uncertainty. Next target would be around 5,45.Position will be added around 4,5-4,55.

EUR/TRY  will be kept at these levels for the mid term due to uncertainty. Next target would be around 6,35. Position will be increased around: 5,20-5,25.

 Initial Target :LONG TERM hold /  Position will be increased around: 170-175

To summarize: Fund return in TL is now over Interest return, BIST 30, EUR/TRY and USD/TRY returns since inception (15.09.2015). Only GOLD/TRY return is better than fund  return at the moment.

6/6/2018 BIST30 Position Increased

Turkish Stock Market is under pressure due to elections and a possible credit score downgrade.
Monthly interest account #1 is reduced to 5.233,99 TL  and bought 20.000 TL worth of BIST30. First target is 130.000-135.000.

USD/TLnext target revised to :4,8-4,9. Position will be added around 4,4-4,45.

EUR/TRY  Next Target :5,85-5,9 Position will be increased around: 5,10-5,15

 Initial Target :LONG TERM hold /  Position will be increased around: 165-170

To summarize: Fund return in TL is now over Interest return, BIST 30, EUR/TRY and USD/TRY returns since inception (15.09.2015). Only GOLD/TRY return is better than fund  return at the moment.

22 5 2018 EUR Position reduced

TL continues to lose value against USD and EUR.
EUR/TL hit the next target at 4,4746. 
15.978,72 TL worth EUR is exchanged to TL and allocated to monthly interest account #2.

EUR/TRY  Next Target :5,85-5,9 Position will be increased around: 5,00-5,05

USD/TLnext target :4,75-4,8. Position will be added around 4,1-4,15.

Target : Initial target 135. 000-140.000. Position will be increased gradually if the market will go down further, to around 115.000-110.000.

 Initial Target :LONG TERM hold /  Position will be increased around: 165-170

To summarize: Fund return in TL is now over Interest return, BIST 30, EUR/TRY and USD/TRY returns since inception (15.09.2015). Only GOLD/TRY return is better than fund  return at the moment.

15 5 2018 USD Position reduced

TL continues to lose value against USD and EUR.
USD/TL hit the next target at 4,45.
12.104,01 TL worth USD is exchanged to TL and allocated to monthly interest account #3.

USD/TLnext target :4,75-4,8. Position will be added around 4,05-4,1.

Target : Initial target 135. 000-140.000. Position will be increased gradually if the market will go down further, to around 115.000-110.000.

EUR/TRY  Initial Target :5,45 Position will be increased around: 4,85-4,9

 Initial Target :LONG TERM  Position will be increased around: 162-165

To summarize: Fund return in TL is now over Interest return, BIST 30, EUR/TRY and USD/TRY returns since inception (15.09.2015). Only GOLD/TRY return is better than fund  return at the moment.