24 1 2017 USD Position increased

The USD/TRY market is getting close to the support at the 5h MA 50 2 stand deviation lower bollinger band (purple line). This is also the low of the previous sell off and has not been violated since the uptrend from 2,9 has begun.
The target to enter long was 3,65-3,70 range but with the recent chart development, current level looks accepable to enter long with a partial exit target around 3,88 -3,90.

EUR is also weak recently.

IMKB 30 is close to the weekly upper band resistance.

Gold is also showing signs of consolidation.

The USD position is increase by closing one of the theoretical monthly interest accounts.(account #2)

Overall current distribution is below:

18 1 2017 Update BIST 30 Position Closed

USD/TL found a range between 3,72-3,95 and  a test to 3,90 is expected soon.The position has not been increased as the market did not reach the buy target level around 3,65-3,7.

EUR/TL chart is below:

BIST 30 made a huge jump after the relaxation of USD pressure. Position is closed and shifted to monthly interest account 3.

Gold is trading around the highs as well, partly due to recent rally in Gold in global markets.

Current position distribution and returns are summarized below:

11 1 2017 Update

USD/TL hit the target too fast. It is a big sign of strength therefore the USD position is not completely closed but only %50. Long position is considered around 3,60-3,70. Next target in the coming months to close the position will be 4,05-4,15 range.

EUR had a similar run expectedly.

Gold also had  a big up move in line with the depreciation in TL.

The TL is invested partly in the IMKB 30 and partly in monthly interest, as the dollar value of the stock exchange is down significantly which is becoming a good investment at these levels. The major all time support is 1.300 USD.

Current distribution is below:

3/1/2017 Market Update

USD is testing the short term top around 3.59. A daily close above this level will most probably push the market up till 3,8-3,9 range where  USD position will be closed for the short term.
Long position is considered around 3,35-3,4.

EUR is under pressure due to downtrend in EUR/USD, however against TL the uptrend is in place.

Long position in EUR will be initiated around 3,50-3,6 range.

IMKB 30 is at the significant weekly resistance. Long position is hold for another potential 7-8% up move to 101.000-102.000.

Gold is on the uptrend however not coming down enough to targeted long initiation level around 125.

Current position and distribution is as below:

Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri "Yatırım Danışmanlığı" kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, Aracı Kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır. Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.

6/12/2016 Market Update

USD and EUR continue to rally against TL .

However, intraday spike of USD  to 3,59 and following sell off on 02.12.2016 set a short term top.

EUR hit the short term target at 3,8021 today. The position is closed and 13.200 TL distributed to savings accounts 2&3  for interest return. The long position is will be inititated around 3,5-3,55.

USD is at 3,5351. In case the market declines to 3,30-3,40 range, the long position will be increased.

BIST 30 is at 89980.The position will be increased around 86000.

Gold is at 133.03.Position will be initiated around 123-125.

Overall the position is summarized below:

25/11/2016 Update

USD/TL reached the target mentioned in the previous post rather quickly mostly due to the global rally in the USD.(3,4-3,5). 10.000 TL worth USD is sold and bought into BIST 30 future. Next level to sell will be around 3,8-3,9. The position will be increased around 3,25.

EUR/TL is still away from the target(3,8-3,9)

Gold is still on the uptrend against TL however not close to the buy level target around 120-125. In the global markets, Gold is being sold off mostly due to USD strength and better economic expectations.

BIST 100 is on the lower  Bollinger Band of Daily Chart. Due to increase in USD, the market is under pressure. The USD sold is bought into stock market via BIST 30 future around 90.600.

Target is the weekly upper bollinger band around 102.000:

Overall position is as below:

7.11.2016 Market Review

No rebalancing in the portfolio as the markets have not provided a significant opportunity in the past 98 days.

However, the upside move of USD/TL by making new all time highs and also gold making all time higs in terms of TL demanded an update.

New record highs in the coming weeks are highly probable.The probable technical target for USD/TL to the upside will be 3,40-3,50 where some USD will be converted to TL.

Weekly chart of USD/TL:

Weekly Chart of EUR/TL.The probable technical target of EUR/TL to the upside is around 3,8-3,90.

BIST 100 is struggling for a long time with no direction.Cautiously long position will be considered around 70.000, as downside potential is really high with the current risks. Market can easily go down to 50-55.000 with a global trigger event.

Gold is in a strong uptrend. 120 region is a buying opportunity.

Current portfolio results are summarized below: