Monday, December 11, 2017

12/12/2017 Update: EUR and GOLD Position opened

After a relief of stress of Turkey with US, BIST 30 stock market made significant gains.
USD/TRY, EUR/TRY and GOLD/TRY pulled back from all time highs, trading close to 50 day Moving Averages.
Fictional Monthly Interest Account #2 is closed with 15.644,45 TL invested in EUR and 15.000 TL invested in Gold.

BIST 30 Rally can be seen below. Long position can be considered around 122.000 level.
USD/TRY pulled back till 50 day Moving Average.
EUR/TRY also pulled back close to 50 day Moving Average and as mentioned position is opened.
GOLD/TRY broke 50 day Moving average and trading above 200 day Moving Average at the moment. The position will be further increased if the market trades close to 200 day Moving Average (around 148) .
Overall Summary is below. Taking the initialization date as reference, Fund performance has been better than Interest, USD/TRY or EUR/TRY return. It is close to Gold return however worse than BIST 30 return at the moment.

Friday, November 24, 2017

24/11/2017 Update - USD Position increased

USD/TRY made all time highs together with EUR/TRY.

Fictional Monthly Interest Account #3 closed after accrued interest and USD position is increased. (43.401,33 TL).Mid Term target to reduce the position is around 4,25-4,3. Position will be increased around 3,75.

EUR/TRY is also making record highs..

GOLD/TRY market is in a strong uptrend. Waiting for a pull back to 50Day Moving Average Support -  around 4850  to open a long position.

BIST 30 is in  a correction after marking new highs around 141.000. Long position will be considered around  200 Day Moving Average Support - around 123.500-124.500 region.

Overall summary is below. Fund performance has been better than interest or USD performance, however with the help of this year's up move, BIST30 performance is close to the fund performance.

Friday, October 27, 2017

27/10/2017 Update- USD Position reduced

Since last update, BIST 30 had a sharp run up despite the tensions between US and Germany. However due to USD/TRY testing new highs, market is consolidating close to all time highs.

USD/TRY has been in a strong uptrend since the low around 3,38. "43.000 TL" worth position is closed and transferred to fictitious monthly interest 3 account.  Position will be increased around if market comes back to 3,65 -3,7 range. The rest long position will be kept for the mid term.
EUR/TRY is trading around all time highs. Long position will be considered around 4.1.
Gold/TRY is also trading around all time highs due to increase in USD/TRY.Long position will be considered around 4.500.
Overall summary is below. Fund performance has been better than interest or USD performance however with its recent up move, BIST30 performance is slightly higher than the fund performance.

Monday, October 9, 2017

9 10 2017 Market Update / USD Position Reduced

Due to recent political tensions between US and Turkey, markets reacted sharply.

Since last update on 7th of June, BIST 30 made record highs after a significant rally and sold of 10% since topping around 136.000 past month. Looking for a long position around 110.000-115.000.

Almost 1 month ago, USD traded briefly 3,38 and bounced up. Since then, it has been trending up without a decent pull back.
30.000 TL worth of USD position is exited today and transferred to fictitious monthly interest account 2.
Next target to reduce long position is around 3,80  level where the upper bollinger band of the weekly chart is standing at the moment.
Long position will be increased around 3,55.
 EUR is on an uptrend supported with EUR/USD going up. Long position will be considered around 3,95-4.
Gold is also testing the highs against Turkish Lira. Long position will be considered around 4400-4450.
Current position and the performance compared to underlying instruments is summarized below :

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

7/6/2017 USD Position increased

After a rough start to the year , Turkish Financial Markets have been rather positive for the past few months.

BIST 30 have been rallying almost without a break. Previous all time highes are broken and market is trading  6-7% above the previous highs at the moment. Waiting for a pullback to possibly enter a long position at a favorable price.
Turkish Lira has been strong against USD after the shock rally to 3.90's at the beginning of the year. TL is Trading around 3,5154 and close to 200 day Moving average (blue line), which has been a significant support since the break out from 1,8's.
It is a good level  to increase USD position thus 24.087,16 TL is transferred from monthly interest account to increase USD position further.

Strength of EUR against USD is keeping EURO more stable compared to USD.
Also Spot Gold prices going up in USD terms, however in TL terms, due to strength of TL,  prices have been consolidating within 140-150 range
Current position and the perfomance is summarized below :

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

14 2 2017 USD position increased

USD is trading around 50 day MA support line and testing the previous break out level around 3,6.
Long position is increased by closing the monthly interest account #3 as planned.
First target  is around 3,8 for initial profit taking- second target will be around 3,88-3,9.
Eur  also weakened to 3,85-3,9 range.
BIST 30 is consolidating close to all time highs. A test for the record highs is coming soon.
Gold is also on the highs, as the weakening of USD is compansated by the increase in the gold price in global markets.
Current position is summarized below:

Friday, February 3, 2017

03 02 2017 update: "USD position increased"

USD/TRY is back to the support levels. Monthly interest account #2 is closed and USD position is increased. The first target is again around 3,87-3.90.
Weekly EUR/TRY chart is below:
IMKB 30 is going up non stop. There are many significant resistances around this region. Expecting a pull back to at least 102.000-103.500 range soon.However it could be a start of longer term rally due to the depreciation in TRY.

Weekly Gold gram/TRY chart is below.
The current position distribution and the results are summarized below:

Thursday, January 26, 2017

27 1 2017 USD/TL Position reduced as planned

Market reached the short term target level as of this morning.Position is reduced 50% and put into fictional monthly savings account #2.  The position is expected to be closed between 4,05-4,15 depending on the market move at the time.

EUR is also on the highs.
Gold is on the highs against TL.
BIST 30 is testing the range resistance.

The current distribution of the capital after closing half of the USD position is summarized below:

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

24 1 2017 USD Position increased

The USD/TRY market is getting close to the support at the 5h MA 50 2 stand deviation lower bollinger band (purple line). This is also the low of the previous sell off and has not been violated since the uptrend from 2,9 has begun.
The target to enter long was 3,65-3,70 range but with the recent chart development, current level looks accepable to enter long with a partial exit target around 3,88 -3,90.

EUR is also weak recently.
IMKB 30 is close to the weekly upper band resistance.

Gold is also showing signs of consolidation.

The USD position is increase by closing one of the theoretical monthly interest accounts.(account #2)

Overall current distribution is below: