Friday, November 25, 2016

25/11/2016 Update

USD/TL reached the target mentioned in the previous post rather quickly mostly due to the global rally in the USD.(3,4-3,5). 10.000 TL worth USD is sold and bought into BIST 30 future. Next level to sell will be around 3,8-3,9. The position will be increased around 3,25.

EUR/TL is still away from the target(3,8-3,9)
Gold is still on the uptrend against TL however not close to the buy level target around 120-125. In the global markets, Gold is being sold off mostly due to USD strength and better economic expectations.

BIST 100 is on the lower  Bollinger Band of Daily Chart. Due to increase in USD, the market is under pressure. The USD sold is bought into stock market via BIST 30 future around 90.600.
Target is the weekly upper bollinger band around 102.000:

Overall position is as below:

Monday, November 7, 2016

7.11.2016 Market Review

No rebalancing in the portfolio as the markets have not provided a significant opportunity in the past 98 days.

However, the upside move of USD/TL by making new all time highs and also gold making all time higs in terms of TL demanded an update.

New record highs in the coming weeks are highly probable.The probable technical target for USD/TL to the upside will be 3,40-3,50 where some USD will be converted to TL.

Weekly chart of USD/TL:
Weekly Chart of EUR/TL.The probable technical target of EUR/TL to the upside is around 3,8-3,90.
BIST 100 is struggling for a long time with no direction.Cautiously long position will be considered around 70.000, as downside potential is really high with the current risks. Market can easily go down to 50-55.000 with a global trigger event.
Gold is in a strong uptrend. 120 region is a buying opportunity.
Current portfolio results are summarized below: